Influences Directions politicization US Dollar Index and Gold

This year is an election year for the new US president with the power struggle between the political parties and the Democratic Party.

Political conditions in the US economy that took place since the founding of this republic of the United States we need to know is always going to Affect the future or four years down the road in the direction of movement of the dollar index that lately will Also Affect the price of gold in general.

Invisible to the eye we can see if the democratic camp who rose to Become president will usually be Followed by economic policy that will Affect the macroeconomic conditions in the country and is always Followed by the strengthening of the dollar index. This certainly makes the gold price will be corrected in the next four years the trend.

Read also 

1. US Interest Rates And Gold: Macro US economy and the Fed Interest Rate

2. US Interest Rates and Gold: A Confidence In Confusion 

When the republican who won the presidential election in 2016 is the tendency toward this dollar index to weaken to 4 years and is always Followed by the strengthening of the gold price. This is Because The political policies more liberal republican aka Often interfere with using the arguments of conflict abroad rather than taking care of the comfort of the domestic economy. Reviews These conflicts will be read as the market in the form of "a bit away" to Temporarily invest funds in the US.

Thus Spake the attention of readers of this magazine that this year there are two major agenda is the determination of interest rates and the US presidential election that could give equality of the trend in gold prices and the index of the dollar, but may Also have a new contradiction when two of the agenda there is disharmony between economic theory and political theory is supposed to happen.

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US Interest Rates And Golds: Macro US economy and the Fed Interest Rate

US macroeconomic developments today will we trace slowly with regard to part of economic growth and inflation part of the US macroeconomic.

From the economic growth of labor growth factor becomes the starting point of hacking a growth state. Connection here is that the pace of labor could affect all sectors is at the economic growth.

The development of the US labor sector is experiencing a trend improvement from late 2013 until now when the Fed's stimulus package ends so likely trend of the US workforce will continue to improve at a time when that will come. Improvements in this sector will certainly change the behavior of spending or consumer spending since the US experienced raising consumer income.

Read also US Interest Rates and Gold: A Confidence In Confusion 

The direction of consumer shopping behavior continues to improve making the other sectors will also change the trend towards more nice. Behavior consumer spending rose in the theory of macro economy will certainly make the sector sale of property or the index of housing, the index of retail sales or retail sales, banking activities and order order goods or durable goods orders increasingly have a positive trend, so if we see that the rate of economic growth in The US also leads to positive things.

With the potential economic growth rate is a good chance the velocity of money in the US will grow in size and made increasingly rising prices due to depletion of stocks in the business sector (business inventories and wholesale inventories).

The rate of economic growth that occurs is usually followed by the rate of inflation so that the task of the central bank is to resist such headway that macroeconomic run in accordance with the theory of economic balance. Potential interest rate hikes will be seen when there is something like this after holding the velocity of money or money supplay excessively inside the country.

Potential increase in US interest rates is being peered at the surface and komidity global financial markets with the opportunities that if this happens then inevitably it will have strengthened the dollar index, which means also that the gold price will be corrected fairly deep.

Well kept it is undesirable from the Fed itself as a strengthening interest rates there has been no final decision in time and place. And the strengthening of the dollar index will also affect the balance of payments deficit increase.

Expectations of the Fed that the strengthening of the dollar index occurs when the decision is final interest rate increase at the meetings of the FOMC meeting this year.

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US Interest Rates and Gold: A Confidence In Confusion

Learning Investment09 - The development of the latest policy direction the Fed increasingly making the market become despondent because there is not yet a certainty toward the Fed's monetary policy was changed or even stalled.

This confusion factors will have an impact on the future of investments in the financial markets and global commodity markets, so if we see that the more dominating factor of verbal intervention rather than macro-economic reality that exists.

It is certainly an impact on market prices such as for example the price of gold that according to macro-economic data, especially the US should lead to correction of the gold price long. But the reality of the matter rally-long rally was perched in the gold price as a result of a confusion in the future of the global investment market.

The research team Financeroll assume that this uncertainty is the background that are not clear also from the monetary policies of some major economy like the US, China, Eurozone, UK and Japan, each does have its strengths and weaknesses, but if not there was a cohesion in directing the pace of global economic growth.

We see as macro US economy continued to improve in contradiction with China's macro economy is likely to be clumsy, but if we look at the policy direction for controlling money supplay between the US and China really much different. Where from the US side continues to try to make money supplay on US soil should be controlled by raising the interest rate will be gradual. As with the axis of Beijing as if to let its currency strengthen against other world currencies so that our team thought that Beijing wishes to withstand the slow economic growth even more markedly so would be a big impact on global economic growth.

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Fed Meeting This Week Define the Future Price of Gold (Free Fundamental Weekly)

This week will be a week-determination for the dollar index and gold prices as the FOMC meeting will be held this week.

Fed meeting this time will be the credibility of the betting event Janet Yellen and her colleagues did have the courage to change or not to change interest rates at all. When there is an increase, then the dollar index will rally with gold correction rather long. On the contrary in case of delay, the chance of rising gold prices and the correction of the dollar index is wide open.

In the view of the research team, based Financeroll US macroeconomic spectacles that the interest rate hike at the Fed there is a chance this semester to occur and 2 times in the next semester with economic growth assumption remains strong, oil prices continue to rebound.

In addition to waiting for the Fed meeting, as a complementary activity spice trade market movements this week that US inflation data, RBA minutes, the labor situation England and the Bank of England meeting. The future will be determined in the pound's BoE meeting.

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March 14 2016: Comprehensive Analysis Index

Learning Investment09 - Asian stocks started the week higher supported by interest on Wall Street, crude oil prices are rising and the power that emanated from Chinese economic data released at the end of last week. The S & P 500 ended at its highest level this year on Friday as oil prices rose further and investors reassess the stimulus measures taken by the European Central Bank last week.

Read also IHSG Strategy To Observe The Fed Meeting

The investors who have pushed the US stock market higher over the past month will be looking for clues about the pace of interest rate hikes in the US this week from the Federal Reserve. The latest economic data has eased concerns that the United States may be heading into recession and the data helped the benchmark S & P 500 rebounded 11 percent since mid-February. But on the other hand a variety of facts and figures that show improvement in the country could also force the Fed to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases more quickly than previously planned and thus potentially reducing the enthusiasm for the stock.

As usual, the market waiting for the Fed's announcement at the end of a two-day policy meeting that started on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady after rising in December, for the first time in nearly a decade, while economists expected an increase will occur in late June and partly predict before this year ends.

If the Fed signals a more aggressive interest rate increases then it can dull the bullish momentum stock. While investors bet will only happen once again at this year's increase, but it should be remembered that in his final statement the Fed quite clearly signaled that they want more more than that (one).

Partners in Asia ie BoJ Fed is scheduled to hold a two-day policy meeting starting today. BoJ policy makers will discuss whether to waive the $ 90 billion in short-term funds from the interest rate applied to the BoJ's new negative after the securities industry warned that the investment money would be thrust into this bank.Sejauh deposits BOJ looks likely still hold after adopting the tribe negative interest at a meeting in late January.

China reported data released on Saturday showed the weakness in the economy an important part, but the data was also charged positive signs in some parts. Manufacturing output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, while retail sales rose at the slowest rate since May 2015. The fixed asset investment data, which is an important driver of China's economy, rose 10.2 percent in the first two months compared with the period in the previous year. From these data look the Chinese government has begun to pour its budget, and the recovery in the real-estate sector is expected to return pushes up the economy in Asia and the world.

Meanwhile investors and traffickers also continue mementau developments in the world oil trade. In recent months, the general movement of stocks have been closely correlated to fluctuations in the price of crude oil so that the term began keblai into positive territory for 2016 and back to around $ 40 per barrel and this is one of the key factors that increase the passion in stock trading.

Technical analysis today

NIKKEI FUTURES

Although by the end of last week is still no indication bullish on the daily movement, Nikkei futures still require greater upward momentum. In the last three weeks in step Nikkei futures faltered resistance zone, a combination of two adjacent resistance on the weekly time frame, at 17 090 and 17165. Even in the closing session on Friday, the weekly chart of Nikkei futures ended in negative territory.

Since opening this morning Nikkei futures still trying to rise but remain vulnerable to a sell-off for not being able to break down the resistance zone in the weekly chart. If there is a 1-hour chart began to occur close below 16945 support zone, almost certainly this index will continue to decline with the next target in the area of ​​16 805.

Support: 17020, 16945, 15 805

Resistance: 17 090, 17 165, 17 235

Suggestions Transaction:

SELL 17050, SL, 17 150, TP 16825

KOSPI FUTURES

KOSPI futures opened higher this morning, at 244.70. Closing session last Friday at 243.55. But traders actually take the opportunity by selling or taking advantage of the upward movement of this index that has occurred since mid-February. While the intraday downside movement has reached 243.05, moving close to session lows on Friday at 242.75 which is the first intraday support.

For short-term KOSPI futures keep potential bullish. This index has been successfully penetrate the strong resistance pda daily and weekly charts. Until kinipun KOSPI futures remain above the dynamic support on the daily chart is located at 239.00. On the 4-hour chart support at 241.75 perched dynamic, during this last support KOSPI futures are still more likely to try next target is a strong resistance in the form of the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 246.85, though not necessarily to be tested today.

Support: 242.75, 241.75, 240.15

Resistance: 244.80, 245.40, 246.85

Suggestions Transaction:

BUY at 243.50, SL at 242.50, TP at 245.40

HANG SENG FUTURES

Hang Seng futures pointed to movements similar to KOSPI futures early in the session this har. HSI futures opened with a jump rise in 20384. The closing session last weekend at 20232. When this analysis prepared intraday highs have been at 20 435, the highest since the first week of January.

But the traffickers still appeared cautious. This index remains in a consolidation phase as seen on the daily chart. Although it was already on the second correction target (38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 20 195) finished in a time frame that is larger vendors still dominate the market. To this day riding opportunities can still be maintained as long as the support at 20120 remain.

Support: 20232, 20120, 20000

Resistance: 20 435, 20 514, 20 608

Suggestions Transaction:

BUY at 20250, SL, 20150, TP 20500

Source financeroll.co.id

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Stock Market Predictions In Year of the Monkey Fire 2016

Wood Goats year 2015 is not very pleasant for stock investors, especially in the second half. JCI in 5523 reached its highest rate in 2015, but then dropped and fluctuated in the range of 4400-4600's. How is the condition of the stock market in the year 2016 Fire Monkey? Do JCI able to rebound or even getting worse? The industrial sector what is the benefit? Shio anything hockey or Ciong in 2015? As an alternative, this time I will give you written about the stock market predictions to be reviewed in terms of Feng Shui.

Welcome Year of the Monkey Fire calendar year 2567. Under the Chinese, the Monkey year will start on February 8, 2016 until January 27, 2017. The Year of the Monkey 2016 is symbolized by two elements - the fire sitting on top of the metal. According to the cycle of birth and destruction, which governs the relationship between the elements, these two elements are not in harmony. Usually a conflict arises, for example in the international world.

The element of fire still appeared in 2016 and is often the driving force behind the stock market. But the metal element which conflicts with the fire resulted in fluctuating market conditions. The negative sentiment may still be going on in the first half of 2016. Meanwhile, in the second half of the next stock market tends to be more conducive. It is estimated that the stock market outlook is not too bright in 2016, especially in the first half, but passable in the next semester.

Character monkey is clever but mischievous. Such is the character of the stock market in the year of the monkey. So you have to be careful, chances are many surprises in the stock market, and the fluctuation is quite high. Who want Cuan in Monkey should be smarter than a Monkey.

Any industries that will perform well in the Monkey?

• Industries with the Metal element will benefit, such as gold, banking, machinery, engineering, computers, cars, and high-tech industries.

• Industries with the Water element will be benefited, for example, the logistics industry, communication, drinks.

• Industries with moderate elements of nature land, for example mineral mining, construction, property, infrastructure

• Wood Industries with its moderate elements, examples include textiles, fashion, consumer products, paper, books, forestry, furniture industry etc.

• Industries with less advantaged Fire element, like the stock market, energy, food

So, who is going to hockey in the Year of the Monkey Fire 2015?

Shio Hap (harmony) with Monkey will get hockey, such as zodiac Dragon and Rat.

While zodiac affected Ciong (conflict) with Monkey will have tribulation, such as Shio Monkey, Snake, Pig and Tiger. The most Ciong is Tiger.

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SHARE BANKING AND RESTRICTIONS NIM (Net Interest Margin)

On Friday, February 19, 2016 the stock investors were surprised by the sharp decline in stock index closed up -1.69% in 4697. The decline was triggered by the drop in banking shares. BBRI shares fell -4.58% -4.37% BBCA BMRI BBNI -2.61% -6.42%. Suspected decline in banking stocks after the statement of planned restrictions on net interest income margin (Net Interest Margin) of the Financial Services Authority (FSA). What is Net Interest Margin or NIM is it? What is the impact of the limitation or reduction in NIM? What are the prospects of banking stocks next?

WHAT IS NET INTEREST MARGIN (NIM)?

Net Interest Margin (NIM) or Margin Net Interest Income is the ratio between the net interest income to the value of assets distributed as a credit. In principle, the greater the value NIM, the bank is getting better. NIM indicates the level of profitability of a bank. Banks with a larger number NIM means more efficient use of its assets to generate profits. (Quoted from the book Stocks Fundamental Analysis Second Edition)

Banking industry in Indonesia is an industry that is most beneficial when compared to the banking industry of other countries. Banking industry in Indonesia has a return value greater 2-fold compared with banks in the United States. Average Return On Equity (ROE) of Indonesian banks is 18% -25%. While ROE banking companies in the United States only 9%. The magnitude of the Indonesian banking profit was driven by the factor of the magnitude of the Net Interest Margin (NIM).

Figures NIM Indonesia is bigger than the other ASEAN countries, which in 2015 amounted to 4% -5%. Figures NIM Indonesia has actually declined, in the years 2011-2013 the range of about 6%. But still greater when compared to other ASEAN countries. NIM Philippines only reached 3.3 percent, Thailand 2.6 percent, Malaysia 2.3 percent and Singapore 1.5 percent.

FSA plans to reduce the value of NIM to a range of 3% -4% (probably still discourse).

WHAT IMPACT LIMITATION NIM?

The high NIM is indeed a positive impact on the bank's profit, but instead burden the company owes the bank. This means that the cost of debt companies are taking debt in the country to be great. Therefore many companies find funding from abroad are much smaller flowers. But there are risks that the rupiah exchange rate, if the rupiah weakens the burden on companies to pay foreign debt will increase. This resulted in a high cost economy.

By limiting the NIM, in the short term is the bank's profit is likely to decline. But the actual decline in NIM will have more impact in the long run.

• The first is Indonesia's economy will benefit, because it can obtain funds at a lower cost. In the end the company's expansion.

• Secondly, banks will potentially have a larger market share, because it can channel funds which have a lower cost. Companies that previously looking for low-cost funds abroad could potentially turn to local banks.

So far, Indonesia is banking dininabobokkan with the ease of obtaining large profits by NIM. In my opinion, the FSA measure is appropriate. It is time for Indonesian banks to work more efficiently, and to channel more funds for the development of Indonesia.

HOW TO SHARE OUTLOOK FUTURE INDONESIAN BANKS?

I personally was not overly concerned with the future outlook for Indonesian banks (in the context of long term yes). With the decline in NIM, as long as banks are more efficient work will be able to gain a larger market share. BI also cut interest rates and reserve requirement, it is a positive sentiment for the banks to be more daring and more lending. If the first bank to lend a bit with large flowers, small flowers but now credit amount more. Experience, the edges are the same as tho? In addition there are other sources of income that can be extracted by such bank Fee Based Income. There are still many other business potential that can be done bank.

As explained above, the NIM figures Indonesia has decreased during 2011 to 2015. Note the value of the assets and the bank's profit during that period, remains great, right? So the NIM down value is not new for Indonesian banks.

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