The
government decided to further lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps
(18/02) due to a stable exchange rate and low inflation rate in January last
4:14%. These government measures can be said to be appropriate because it could
bolster economic growth towards the higher, in addition to the acceleration in
government spending related to infrastructure, improvement of the purchasing power
of consumers will also have a positive impact on the Indonesian economy.
The
interest rate Indonesia at this time is quite high, when compared with
countries in Asia and Europe, at a time when countries like the US, Japan and
Europe apply a low interest rate, Indonesia is still hindered by high interest
rates, one thing making monetary authorities are reluctant to lower interest
rates in China's economic slowdown is pushing the country to weaken the Yuan in
order to withstand the decline in the value of exports. Pressure on the rupiah
will make the risk of increased debt and lower investment rating Indonesia.
Indonesia's
economic growth in the fourth quarter showed an improvement compared to the
previous quarter which reached 5:04%, for the full year 2015 Indonesia's GDP
grew 4.79% slightly better than the market consensus of 4.75%. Indonesia's
economic recovery make foreign funds back into the domestic stock market and
money market instruments (bonds). Up (18/02) YTD foreign net buy reached Rp
2.74 trillion, making JCI is currently in phase II (my writing at the beginning
of last year), the target towards 5,000.
Until
FEB-16, JCI quite shiny, it can be seen in the graph below yields, even surpass
the performance of JCI famous stock exchanges, such as the US, Japan, Hong Kong
and Europe.
The
positive sentiment in the country in the improvement of economic direction,
acceleration of infrastructure budgets, tariff reduction in fuel, electricity
and interest rates is an important instrument to support the strengthening of
the stock market until the second quarter of this year. JCI currently is
entering phase II (4.700 to 5.000) 4.700 I see the point of support is also
strong enough to date technically.
JCI Technical View
JCI's
performance up to now quite positive, sometimes there is a correction, but the
level of support at 4,700 is not broken, it's been 2 weeks JCI bullish trend,
it is inversely proportional to the majority of stock markets globally and
regionally, I believe the economic recovery will be felt in this year, if the
government can keep the economy is not likely stability economic growth back
above 5%, but remain aware of the risk of the global economy as oil prices are
still volatile and interest rate policy of the Fed, for the weekly performance
of JCI deserves a rating of B +.