Learning Investment09 - 1990'an last decade cigarette ads
with the phrase "How Low Can You Go," to illustrate how low the
nicotine content of their products in which competitors can not be considered
his inferior. Likewise, the picture is in the stock market in 2009. The shock
of the financial crisis in the United States swept the trillions of US dollars
from the stock exchange. Wall Street Journal on March 9, 2009 edition makes the
headlines of the day, "How Low Can Stock Go", describes the
conditions at the time as the worst since the Great Depression era.
Seven years have passed since the
market is at its nadir, March 9, 2016 with a record of the current $ 14 trillion
value of the shares has been returned and pushed the index Standard &
Poor's 500 rose nearly 200%. Currently, the anxiety began to permeate the
investors. Confidence them down, that the market will be able to continue to
climb. These concerns are based on corporate earnings that are still
disappointing, slowing economic growth and uncertainty over China's stance with
regard to interest rate policy. Investors eventually secured themselves by
pulling their funds out of the stock market in the rate of speed that had never
occurred before. As a result, during the past 18 months, the index S & P
500 was only able rose by 0.5% only.
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Referring to the previous history,
the traditional view of addressing these events with more cynical. So that the
market does not collapse, and could last longer then the investor attitude is
very reasonable. The market is too strong impetus gains, typically killed by
excessive confidence. Furthermore, it would be difficult to find. Market
participants now been seized with a feeling pessimistic, skeptical and unsure
to put their funds in stocks where the position they have in the high prices
that have not previously been encountered. Of course, this will be more
interesting, conflicting sentiments will form concerns these stocks were able
to climb.
This concern can be seen from the
flow of funds out of the stock market. In the last 12 months investors have
issued at least $ 140 billion, two-fold greater than the peak current capital
outflows in the same period when the global financial crisis. Interestingly,
these stocks will tend to move up some time later after a large flow of capital
out. In a note, since 1984, there are 12 times the incidence in which recorded
outflows occurred and six months later an increase in stocks. The moment than a
dozen of these, only twice irregularities pattern. S & P 500 index
generally rose by 7.1 percent, according to Bloomberg research.
How much lower the stock will go
down, almost all could have guessed it would not decrease the price. At least
the feeling skeptical that the market will be difficult to climb, could
consider going back reversal of the market. With patterns that previously
occurred, at least in one half of the future will be price re-increases. Of
course this will be an opportunity for investors who are brave enough risk,
risk appetite, entry after making sure that the fall in prices will not be much
longer and the market will be ready to turn around directions.
In the last 7 years, the sectors
stocks in the Consumer Sector Top Gainers are, most prominently, followed by
the financial sector, industry, technology. These three sectors trooped price
increase. Sector Utilities, Telecommunications and Energy occupies a position
protruding performance over 7 years. Considering the track record of this
increase, investors have the option to drop on which sector is very potential
to go up at least in one semester to the next year.
2016 begins with a disappointing
performance, the first six weeks was recorded as the worst performance in the
history of the US stock market. Stock moves 2% either up or down. But since
mid-February, Bearish pressure seems to have turned into an opportunity for
buying back, buy back. Some issuers it is worth re-considered by promising good
performance this year.
The financial sector is still
regarded as the source of the birth of the financial crisis in February 2008.
In fact yesterday, they lead the reinforcement of the market from the ground
up. Investors are still blaming the sector is catastrophic. Last year, this sector
could generate at least $ 228 billion on the stock S & P 500. In line with
the improvement in the market, this sector was also recovered. As a result,
sectors that were formerly hated, such as energy and mining, also appear to be
ready will be a favorite of investors back. The declining trend (Bearish) has
opened the doors of buying back.