Learning Investment09 - Employment
Change or changes in the number of workers released every month by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics and the usually high impact on the movement of
the AUD. This indicator is one of the reference to the Reserve Bank of
Australia (RBA) to determine changes in interest rates. Changes in the number
of workers is strongly influenced by the jobs available, and will indicate the
overall economic activity.
Today
March 17 at 07:30 pm will be released the data changes in employment and the
unemployment rate in Australia in February 2016. Although it was released in
conjunction with a data rate of unemployment is also high impact but the data
changes in the workforce (Employment Change) is usually more impact. Last
January the amount of labor in Australia decreased 7,900 people, lower than the
estimated 12,900 people who will increase.
For
the month of February 2016 is estimated workforce will increase 11,600 people.
If the result of the release of higher than expected, the AUD / USD will tend to
strengthen, and vice versa if it is lower than expected, or even reduced, the
AUD / USD is likely to weaken.
Technical
Overview
Of
the 4 hour chart above, until March 17, 2016 3:30 pm hour show bullish
tendencies:
1. Formed
bullish engulfing candle.
2. The
rate broke the 55 ema resistance curve and point indicator Parabolic SAR
(Parabolic Stop And Reverse) moved to the underside of the bar candlestick,
showing price movements tend to be bullish.
3. The
curve indicator RSI moves above the center line (level 50.0).
4. Line
histogram ADX indicator changes color to green indicates a dominant bullish.
Confirmation
to buy if the curve MACD indicator has moved above the signal curve (red) and
line histogram OSMA also move above the level of 0:00. (Currently the MACD
curve and precise signal curves intersect).
Weekly
pivot levels: 0.7510
Resistance:
0.7593; 0.7645; 0.7700; 0.7770 (38.2% Fibonacci expansion); 0.7850; 0.7904;
0.8000; 0.8080; 0.8150; 0.8210.
Support:
0.7449 (61.8% Fibonacci expansion); 0.7385; 0.7340; 0.7282; 0.7250 (76.4%
Fibonacci expansion level); : 0.7187; 0.7145; 0.7110; 0.7068; 0.7012; 0.6927
(100% Fibonacci expansion level); 0.6843; 0.6770; 0.6700; 0.6686; 0.6600
(coinciding with the 123.6% Fibonacci expansion level); 0.6532.
Indicators:
exponential moving average (ema) 55; Parabolic SAR (12:02, 0.2); Bollinger
Bands (20,2); MACD (12,26,9); OSMA; RSI (14); ADX (14).
Levels
of essential AUD / USD: 0.8000; 0.7978; 7904; 0.7790; 0.7700; 0.7600; 0.7403;
0.7283. 0.7110; 0.6843; 0.6700; 0.6686; 0.6532.
Fibonacci
expansion:
Point
1: 0.9400 (the highest price of 5 September 2014)
Point
2: 0.8034 (lowest price January 5, 2015)
Point
3: 0.8293 (highs January 15, 2015)
Fibonacci
fan:
Swing
point high: 0.9400 (the highest price of 5 September 2014)
Point
swing low: 0.7625 (lowest price 3 February 2015)
5
scenarios movement AUD / USD:
The
market forecast for the Australian Employment Change February 2016: +11.600.
1. If
the results of the release according to estimates, is between +8.000 to
+14.000, then chances AUD / USD still going to move in a range, which is moving
to the limit of resistance or support is nearby and the possibility to
penetrate the resistance level or the support is small.
2. If
the result of the release of the above estimates, between +18.000 +14.100 up,
then it is likely the AUD / USD will break above the resistance level.
3. If
the release is far above the forecast is higher than +18.000, then it is likely
the AUD / USD will break above resistance level 2.
4. If
the results of the release below forecasts, ie between +4.000 to +7.900, then
it is likely the AUD / USD will drop to penetrate the support level below it.
5. If
the result of the release of far below expectations, which is lower than
+4.000, then it is likely the AUD / USD will break below the support level 2.